CSI 300 fell by 0.43%
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This week, the A-share market continues to be in a phase of attempting a rebound. Although the performance of major indices remains under pressure, the overall market sentiment has marginally improved compared to before. From an index perspective, the SSE Index(000001) fell by 0.49% this week, with a gap of 10.76% from its one-year high. It is still constrained by the pressure above the moving averages, currently being about 1.46% below the 50-day moving average. The CSI 300(000300) also slightly declined by 0.43%, remaining in consolidation. The Shenzhen Index(399001) and ChiNext(399006) saw slight declines of 0.17% and a minor increase of 0.04%, respectively, but the downward pressure from the 50-day moving average remains evident.
In terms of the Hong Kong stock market, theHang Seng Index(HSI)rose by 0.63% for the week. Despite trading volumes shrinking to 42.66% below the 50-day moving average, the index has been holding steady above the 200-day moving average for several consecutive weeks. Currently, the rebound from the one-year low stands at 34.48%. The Hong Kong market is gradually digesting the fundamental and policy positives.
Economic data shows that China’s official manufacturing PMI in April retreated to 49, lower than the previous value of 50.5, returning to contraction territory. However, the Caixin manufacturing PMI reported at 50.4, higher than expected but lower than the previous value, indicating that small and medium-sized enterprises still show resilience, although economic recovery remains unstable. The data discrepancy also reflects the structural differentiation in manufacturing prosperity across different metrics, suggesting that policy support will still be needed in the short term. In response, expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions in the second quarter continue to rise. Analysts from multiple securities firms predict that “reserve requirement cuts may come first” to offset downward pressures on economic growth. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held at the end of April emphasized “coordinating stable growth and risk prevention, and introducing new policy tools as appropriate”, signaling enhanced coordination between fiscal and monetary policies.
Meanwhile, the Political Bureau meeting released four key signals: firstly, it clarified that efforts to reduce real estate inventory will continue; secondly, it focused on expanding domestic demand, particularly consumption; thirdly, it stressed high-quality development; fourthly, it encouraged scientific and technological innovation. Clear bottom-supporting policy signals have boosted market confidence in future profit recovery.
Internationally, U.S. stocks saw a full-line rebound last week. As of now, the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) has risen by 0.45%, and the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5)by 0.64%, yet structural pressures remain. High U.S. Treasury yields reflect growing concerns over inflation and fiscal sustainability. During his first hundred days speech, Trump criticized Powell again, advocating for expanded tariffs to protect domestic manufacturing, and signed an announcement providing compensation for auto parts. This move raised concerns about renewed tensions in Sino-U.S. trade relations.
It is noteworthy that a report released by a U.S. think tank warned of a potential “Ponzi risk” in the U.S. Treasury market. If the fiscal deficit continues to expand, it could have profound impacts on the dollar and global capital markets. In the short term, although U.S. stocks have momentum for a rebound, they lack fundamental support. Coupled with uncertainties surrounding Trump’s policies, this may continue to suppress market risk appetite.
Sector-wise, the three strongest performing sectors this week were Computer-Data Storage(G3578IG.CN), which saw a weekly gain of 5.96%, becoming the focus of the market. This sector significantly benefits from AI data explosion, especially data storage hardware and system integration companies, with continued inflows of funds due to anticipated downstream application expansions. Comml Svcs-Document Mgmt(G2751IG.CN)gained 5.67% for the week, benefiting from stable cash flow characteristics and enhanced investor confidence thanks to policy supports for information security and digital management of government and enterprise archives. Retail/Whlsle-Bldg Prds(G5211IG.CN) increased by 5.39%, despite relatively lower market attention, benefiting from post-cycle repair along the real estate chain and a rebound in export orders, leading to valuation repairs.
Within the TOP33 portfolio this week, the overall gain was 2.07%, far outperforming major market indices. Among them, 19 stocks rose while 14 declined. The most outstanding performer was Fujian Wanchen Biotechnology Group(300972), recording a strong gain of 19.38% this week. The company’s Food-Packaged Foods sector is in a relatively defensive position supported by rigid demand. With consumption improvement expectations, the industry is starting to recover. The company specializes in the R&D and sales of fresh edible fungi and has also ventured into snack chain operations and real estate development, enjoying synergistic industrial advantages. Benefiting from enhanced brand recognition and recovering downstream sales, the company attracted fund attention. Its RS Rating is as high as 99, indicating its stock performance far exceeds the market and industry averages; EPS Rating is 85, reflecting robust profitability and clear fundamental support; O’Neil Score is 80, placing it in a relatively high range, showing strong upward momentum in the medium to short term.
In summary, the market is currently in a phase of consolidating at the bottom with structural trends emerging in certain areas. Against the backdrop of reinforced policy signals and enhanced expectations for economic bottom support, it is recommended to focus on stocks with high rankings in O’Neil industries and high O’Neil Scores, especially those with continuous fund inflows and high RS Ratings. Selecting individual stocks remains the core strategy for achieving excess returns before indices fully escape the consolidation range.
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published on April 30, 2025