CSI 300 Falls 0.06%
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A-shares are currently in a downtrend. Although some indexes posted modest rebounds this week, the market-status definition indicates that investors should remain defensive and focus on risk control. The SSE Index(000001) rose 0.61% this week, the Shenzhen Index(399001) gained 1.26%, the ChiNext(399006) advanced 1.52%, while the CSI 300(000300) edged down 0.06%. In terms of short-term moving averages, the SSE Index moved above its 5-day and 10-day moving averages and stood 0.30% above its 50-day moving average, but remained 0.27% below its 20-day moving average and 2.43% below its 200-day moving average. The Shenzhen Index and ChiNext also returned above their 5-day and 10-day moving averages. ChiNext was 0.41% above its 20-day moving average, indicating a more active short-term recovery in growth sectors. However, weekly trading volume for the major indexes continued to contract from the previous week. Volume for the SSE Index was only 88.75% of the prior week’s level, while the corresponding figures for the Shenzhen Index and ChiNext were 89.96% and 90.86%, respectively. Trading volume on the final session also generally remained below the 50-day average. This suggests that the rebound was primarily a technical recovery within a bearish trend and was not yet sufficient to signal a trend reversal.
In overseas markets, volatility moderated, but monetary conditions remained tight. As of now, the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) has risen 0.32% this week, while the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) has fallen 0.25%. The two indexes were 2.84% and 2.29% below their respective one-year highs but remained firmly above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating that the medium-term trend in U.S. equities remains resilient. The Hang Seng Index(HSI) fell 0.22% this week and traded below its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages, showing that Hong Kong equities remain weak. The direct drag from overseas markets on A-shares has eased compared with the previous period, but the global high-interest-rate environment continues to limit any sustained improvement in risk appetite.
U.S. retail sales rose 1.2% month over month in August, substantially exceeding the 0.8% forecast and the previous reading of -0.5%. Initial jobless claims declined to 196,000, below the expected 208,000, indicating that consumption and employment remain strong. These two data points supported the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise rates by 25 basis points in September, taking the upper bound to 4%. The Fed’s resumption of monetary tightening was not unexpected. Against a backdrop of resilient economic activity and persistent inflationary pressure, it continued to emphasize containing inflation and stabilizing expectations. The market has priced in the possibility of three additional rate increases before the middle of next year, directly reflected in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaking above 5%. Following the rate increase, U.S. stocks and bonds rebounded in the short term, while gold also recovered, suggesting that the market had already absorbed part of the pressure from rising rates. Over the longer term, however, higher interest rates will continue to weigh on global asset valuations and increase financing costs.
U.S. crude oil inventories declined by 640,000 barrels. Although the decrease was smaller than expected, the trend of consecutive inventory drawdowns remained intact. The situation in the Middle East, sanctions against Russia and disruptions to energy supplies continued to push oil prices higher. If oil prices continue to rise, transportation, manufacturing and household consumption costs could all increase, further extending the Federal Reserve’s high-interest-rate cycle. Trump publicly called for interest rates to be reduced to 1% or lower, putting him at odds with Warsh. The White House’s statement that it “respects Warsh’s decision” indicates that the fiscal authorities will not intervene in the monetary-policy path for the time being, although tensions between politics and monetary policy continue to increase. The Bank of Japan also raised rates by 25 basis points, with the pace of increases becoming the fastest since 1990. Simultaneous tightening by Japan and the United States means that the contraction in global liquidity is accelerating, while pressure from yen appreciation and emerging-market capital flows is likely to rise.
Domestically, August financial data showed that outstanding aggregate social financing increased 7.2% year over year. The cumulative increase in aggregate social financing during the first eight months reached RMB23.91 trillion, while renminbi loans increased by RMB10.44 trillion. Structurally, direct financing accounted for a larger share than bank credit and contributed more than half of the incremental financing. This indicates that the financing structure is shifting from indirect financing toward direct financing and sectors representing new growth drivers. Credit resources are increasingly flowing into areas such as technological innovation and the green transition. Meanwhile, the year-over-year increase in loans slowed in August, reflecting persistently weak financing demand in the real economy, along with continuing pressure from the property-market adjustment and corporate deleveraging. People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized maintaining stability across the equity, bond and foreign-exchange markets. This indicates that exchange-rate and capital-flow management remain policy priorities amid the dual impact of overseas rate increases and exchange-rate volatility.
On the fiscal side, the issuance of new local-government special-purpose bonds has proceeded relatively slowly, although their use is expected to become more flexible in the fourth quarter. Policy support is likely to focus more on stabilizing growth and implementing livelihood-related projects rather than simply expanding the aggregate volume. The National Development and Reform Commission has held consecutive symposiums with private enterprises, while Zheng Shanjie chaired discussions on improving the development environment. These moves indicate that policy is seeking to restore market confidence and improve the business environment. Xi Jinping emphasized the development of advanced manufacturing, while an important address on basic research further clarified the long-term industrial theme: advanced manufacturing and technological innovation will be critical drivers of future growth.
In international trade, the Chinese and U.S. economic and trade teams continue to maintain close communication and have responded to the “Europe First” procurement clause, indicating that trade competition remains ongoing. The United States has authorized additional tariffs on countries purchasing Russian petroleum products. If implemented, the measure would reshape global energy-trade chains. In the AI sector, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is accelerating AI-industry development, the world’s first AI brain-computer interface standard has been released, and a leading MLCC producer has signaled capacity expansion. These developments indicate that AI and computing power remain the principal sources of growth for the next stage. Trump’s assertion that the United States cannot lose to China in AI further confirms that technological competition between China and the United States will not be interrupted by the interest-rate cycle.
Industry performance shows that this week’s market focus shifted more clearly toward technology and communications. The leading gainers were Telecom Svcs-Wireless(G4892IG.CN), up 13.69% for the week; Elec-Semicondctor Fablss(G3676IG.CN), up 10.62%; and Elec-Semiconductor Equip(G3674IG.CN), up 10.6%. Telecom Svcs-Wireless achieved a strong weekly gain despite having a relatively small number of constituent stocks, reflecting a marked increase in investors’ willingness to concentrate allocations in communications-services subsectors. This also corresponds with expectations of policy support for the construction of next-generation communications networks. The simultaneous strength of Elec-Semicondctor Fablss and Elec-Semiconductor Equip indicates that capital is beginning to refocus on the semiconductor supply chain, covering both chip design and upstream equipment. This reflects improving market expectations regarding technological self-reliance, industrial upgrading and a recovery in industry conditions.
The Top 33 rose by an average of 4.57% this week, with 20 stocks advancing and 13 declining. Its performance was markedly stronger than that of the indexes, indicating that leading stocks can still generate solid excess returns even during a market downtrend. This week’s best-performing stock was Shenzhen Edadoc Technology(301366), which gained 23.83%. The company belongs to Elec-Semiconductor Mfg(G3677IG.HK), which ranks 35th among industries and is within the relatively strong range. The stock has an RS Rating of 96, an EPS Rating of 71 and an O’Neil Score of 76, indicating strong price momentum and sound overall quality. The company primarily provides PCB design and PCBA manufacturing services. Benefiting from its high-speed, high-density PCB design capabilities and one-stop hardware-innovation service model, it is positioned to benefit from the AI hardware, communications-equipment and electronics-innovation cycles. Its Acc/Dis Rating is A+, indicating relatively positive capital-flow conditions that are also consistent with the stock’s strong performance this week.
Although the market has shown a selective recovery, investors should remain cautious within the broader downtrend. The recovery in the indexes has not been accompanied by a meaningful increase in trading volume, while heavyweight sectors have not established clear leadership. This means that market opportunities remain concentrated primarily in stocks with high relative strength within leading industries. The market environment may gradually shift from defensive to constructive only if the indexes continue to reclaim their 20-day and 200-day moving averages, accompanied by improved trading volume.
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published on September 18, 2026