CSI 300 up 2.32%
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A-shares this week showed signs of an attempted rebound. Major indices generally recovered, but volume expansion remained limited, indicating that while market sentiment improved, incremental capital inflows were still insufficient. The SSE Index(000001) rose 2.81% this week, moving back above its 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, but it remained below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This suggests that short-term repair has begun, but medium-term pressure has not yet been fully relieved. In addition, last trading day volume was still 8.1% below the 50-day average. The CSI 300(000300) rose 2.32% this week and also moved above its 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, but it remained below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The recovery pace in large-cap stocks was relatively moderate, and last trading day volume was 16.98% below the 50-day average, showing that institutional money was still relatively cautious overall. Growth stocks showed stronger elasticity: the Shenzhen Index(399001)rose 5.39% this week, and ChiNext(399006) rose 6.55%. Both clearly moved above short-term moving averages, and ChiNext’s last trading day volume was 5.26% above its 50-day average, indicating stronger trading activity during the growth-stock rebound. However, both indices were still about 4.23% and 7.39% below their 50-day moving averages respectively, suggesting that the recovery was more of a short-term bounce after oversold conditions.
In overseas markets, U.S. equities remained strong overall. As of now, the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) rose 3.84% this week and remained firmly above its 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, showing continued resilience in the technology theme. The S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) rose 2.94% this week and hit a year-to-date high. The index is currently only 1.07% below its 52-week high, and risk appetite remains elevated. Hong Kong stocks saw a slight pullback: the Hang Seng Index(HSI) fell 0.84% this week. Although it remained above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, it fell below its 5-day and 10-day moving averages, reflecting a slowdown in short-term capital momentum.
On the macro side, the U.S. economy is showing a pattern of “not weak overall, but with clear structural divergence.” July ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.6, significantly above expectations and the prior reading, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activity and no obvious weakening in corporate demand. However, July ADP employment increased by only 44,000, below expectations and the prior reading, reflecting a marginal slowdown in labor momentum and more cautious hiring by companies. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims were 199,000, close to the prior reading, suggesting the labor market has not deteriorated rapidly. The energy market sent a different signal from before: EIA crude inventories rose sharply by 2.479 million barrels, while the market had expected a draw. This, together with recent oil-price declines, suggests some easing in inflation pressure in the near term. Because growth, employment, and inflation signals are not moving in sync, the Fed is seeing both hawkish voices and expectations for a pause in rate hikes. September policy decisions will likely depend on inflation and employment data over the next one or two months, which could also increase market volatility.
Uncertainty in the external environment mainly comes from a combination of geopolitical tensions and supply-chain policy disruptions. Repeated fluctuations in the Middle East situation, along with overlapping news about the Strait of Hormuz negotiations and the Red Sea conflict, make oil and shipping price expectations more event-driven. Meanwhile, U.S. policy moves related to polysilicon, critical minerals, and scrap exports continue to reinforce the “supply-chain security first” mindset. These policies will raise global trade friction and industrial relocation costs, keeping sectors such as new energy, semiconductors, and critical materials in a state of “high policy sensitivity” for some time. This also means companies need to pay more attention to compliance costs and geopolitical risk pricing in their global strategies.
Domestic policy is showing a dual focus on stabilizing growth and optimizing structure. Deployment around “high-quality development” has become more intensive. On the fiscal side, with improving local half-year reports and expectations for a “moderate rebound in the second half,” there is room for further support to investment and livelihoods. On the monetary side, authorities are emphasizing comprehensive use of tools and timely adjustments, while strengthening transmission through measures such as DR benchmark lending, indicating that policy is not only about lowering costs but also about improving the efficiency of funding to the real economy and key capital-market areas. Combined with the market’s view that July financial data will remain generally stable and that YoY CPI and PPI may edge down slightly, inflation constraints are currently not prominent. Going forward, targeted support for technological innovation, equipment upgrades, green transition, and consumer recovery is relatively likely. References to stabilizing the property market continue to appear, with the focus on stabilizing expectations, credit, and value chains to avoid a second-round drag on household and corporate balance sheets. Measures such as higher vehicle purchase subsidies in multiple regions and including e-bikes in replacement programs also show that consumer policy is becoming more segmented and closer to actual demand. At the same time, revisions to the regulations on integrated circuit layout design protection, the “15th Five-Year Plan” for a new-type power system, and faster AI enablement in state-owned central enterprises all show that policy is combining short-term demand support with medium- to long-term new growth driver cultivation, strengthening endogenous growth capacity amid rising external uncertainty.
In terms of sector performance, capital is further concentrating in technology growth and event-driven themes, with leading sectors expanding from broad technology into sub-sectors such as network computing, software, and special materials. This week’s top gainers were Bldg-Maintenance & Svc(G7340IG.CN), up 23.68%; Computer-Networking(G3574IG.CN), up 18.37%; and Steel-Specialty Alloys(G3313IG.CN), up 17.79%. Among them, House Maintenance & Services led the market, showing that capital is not only focused on the main growth theme but is also looking for sub-sectors with policy catalysts, asset recovery potential, or oversold rebound characteristics. The strength in Computer-Network reflects rising expectations for AI, compute networks, cloud infrastructure, and digital connectivity demand, keeping the technology theme as the core incremental driver in the rebound. The standout performance of Steel-Special Alloy reflects the catch-up rally logic of midstream materials with high-end manufacturing attributes. Combined with downstream demand expectations from defense, aerospace, and energy equipment, capital is extending into “high-barrier, high-value-added” material chains.
The Top 33 portfolio posted a strong performance this week, with an average gain of 14.46%, 32 winners and only 1 loser, indicating a significant expansion in the range of strong stocks and a clear improvement in market money-making effect. The best-performing stock was Advanced Fiber Resources Zhuhai Ltd(300620), which rose 40.32% this week. The company mainly designs, develops, manufactures, sells, and services fiber-optic components. Its products are used in key areas such as fiber lasers and optical communications, benefiting from AI compute infrastructure, optical communication upgrades, and expanding high-speed connectivity demand. Its O’Neil Score is 74, RS Rating is as high as 98, and EPS Rating is 95, showing both strong price momentum and earnings growth. Its O’Neil industry is Telecom-Fiber (G3552IG.CN), with an industry rating of 6, placing it in a relatively strong industry group and fitting the typical pattern that high-quality leaders often emerge in leading industries.
Next week, 295 companies will release earnings reports, and the market has entered earnings season. From the current structure, the A-share rebound has gradually expanded from large-cap recovery into growth, and sector leadership is shifting from a single technology theme toward diversified rotation among technology networks, asset recovery, and high-end manufacturing materials. However, major indices are still broadly constrained by resistance near the 50-day moving average, and volume has not expanded significantly. This means whether the rebound can further evolve into a trend reversal still depends on trading confirmation, earnings validation, and marginal changes in policy and external shocks. Capital is more likely to continue focusing on stocks with strong industry rankings, clear earnings growth, and high relative strength.
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published on August 7, 2026