CSI 300 Falls 1.51%
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A-shares remained in an attempted rebound phase this week, but the indices weakened again, indicating that the recovery process remains fragile. The SSE Index(000001) fell 0.6% for the week and broke below its 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. It was 3.04% below its 200-day moving average. The CSI 300(000300) declined 1.51%, standing only 1.02% above its one-year low. It was also 3.41% below its 50-day moving average and 5.43% below its 200-day moving average, showing that large-cap sectors remain under pressure. Growth indices experienced a more pronounced correction. The Shenzhen Index(399001) fell 2.37%, while the ChiNext(399006) dropped 2.48%; they were 7.26% and 6.59% below their respective 200-day moving averages. This suggests that high-beta growth sectors have not yet escaped their weak trend.
Overseas markets were relatively stronger. The Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC)gained 1.56% for the week, briefly reaching a new one-year high. It is currently only 1.29% below its year-to-date high and 9.39% above its 200-day moving average. The S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) rose 0.73% and remained above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The Hang Seng Index(HSI) gained only 0.04%. However, trading volume on the final day was 34.64% below its 50-day average, and the index had fallen back below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating that Hong Kong stocks were also weak in the short term.
For the week ended September 18, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories increased by 2.969 million barrels, far above the market expectation of a 641,000-barrel decline. Compared with the previous reading, inventories shifted from a drawdown to a clear build, indicating changes in short-term energy demand, refinery utilization, or supply conditions. Although the inventory data itself may help ease supply tightness, the recent rise in oil prices continues to push up inflation expectations. If higher energy prices combine with unexpectedly strong economic data, the probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike in October could rise; the market has even priced in a probability approaching 70%. Goldman Sachs believes that an October hike could become the “finale” of the current cycle, provided that inflation continues to decline and economic growth gradually cools.
Federal Reserve officials continue to send hawkish signals, indicating that policy remains focused on suppressing inflation in areas such as services and wages. Rate hikes do not necessarily reduce long-term Treasury yields effectively. If the market becomes concerned about fiscal deficits, debt supply, and inflation expectations, long-term rates could continue to rise, creating a situation in which “short-term rates are controlled by policy while long-term rates are driven by risk premiums.” A move in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield toward 5%, or even an attempt at 6%, would raise government debt-servicing costs, corporate financing costs, and household borrowing costs while compressing technology-stock valuations. If the yield curve inverts again, concerns about recession and financial-market volatility would intensify. The U.S. dollar could receive support, while gold and U.S. equities—particularly high-valuation technology stocks—would come under pressure.
The People’s Bank of China announced that it would conduct an RMB800 billion medium-term lending facility operation on September 24. The focus is to replenish medium- to long-term liquidity, stabilize financial institutions’ funding costs, and anchor market expectations. With external interest rates remaining high and domestic credit demand still requiring support, monetary policy is likely to place greater emphasis on maintaining reasonably ample liquidity and supporting the real economy through structural tools, rather than relying solely on large-scale easing. Growth in securities-trading stamp-duty revenue reflects changes in market activity and in the financing and investment functions of the capital market. It also highlights the importance of improving market quality, attracting long-term capital, and strengthening investor-return mechanisms.
On the fiscal-policy front, attention is focused on the room for central-government fiscal expansion, increased investment, and capital-market reforms under the 15th Five-Year Plan. Policy priorities may shift from traditional infrastructure expansion toward advanced manufacturing, private investment, new quality productive forces, and efforts to address shortcomings in public services. Coordinated use of local-government special bonds, central-government investment, and private capital could improve investment efficiency. However, project returns, local-debt constraints, and the speed at which funds are deployed remain key issues. The recovery in Shanghai second-hand home prices and land markets in major cities indicates that property expectations have improved in some areas. Nevertheless, market differentiation is likely to continue, and policymakers must prevent localized overheating from developing into speculative price increases.
Industrial policy continues to focus on advanced manufacturing, food security, next-generation communications networks, and 6G development. Moderately forward-looking investment in communications infrastructure could drive investment in equipment, computing power, chips, and applications. At the same time, data security, artificial-intelligence governance, and critical technology standards should be strengthened to reduce the systemic risks created by AI-driven changes in cyber offense and defense. Meetings between the Chinese and U.S. heads of state, together with exchanges between their economic and trade teams, should help stabilize bilateral relations and expand the scope for cooperation. However, competition in technology, procurement, energy, and industrial supply chains will continue.
Industry performance shows that the market’s active themes shifted this week from technology and communications toward domestic-demand recovery and defensive growth. The top-performing industries were Bldg-Resident/Comml(G1520IG.CN), up 6.72% for the week; Apparel-Shoes & Rel Mfg(G3141IG.CN), up 5.16%; and Medical-Research Eqp/Svc(G8058IG.CN), up 4.34%. Bldg-Resident/Comml led the gains, reflecting a phase of recovery in the property chain amid policy support, recovering second-hand home prices in some cities, and improving land-market conditions. Although the industry fell 1.71% on the final day, capital returned to the sector noticeably during the week. The rise in Apparel-Shoes & Rel Mfg indicates that some consumer-goods segments attracted funds as domestic-demand expectations improved. Medical-Research Eqp/Svc reflects potential for a low-level recovery in pharmaceutical research and medical-service assets, although its 2.58% decline on the final day indicates that the sustainability of the move requires further observation.
Among individual stocks, the Top 33 averaged a weekly return of -1.26%, with 13 advancing and 20 declining. Overall, strong stocks performed worse than they did last week, and the market’s profit-making effect remained highly selective. The best-performing stock this week was Shai.Fullhan Microels. ‘A'(300613), which gained 8.87%. The company belongs to the Elec-Semiconductor Mfg(G3677IG.CN) and specializes in integrated-circuit design, closely matching the semiconductor theme that was active this week. Its key indicators were an O’Neil Score of 80, an RS Rating of 95, and an EPS Rating of 91, indicating strong advantages in both earnings growth and share-price performance. Its industry ranking was 33, placing it within the preferred top-1-to-40 range and suggesting that the industry environment provides solid support. Its Acc/Dis Rating was A+, reflecting strong recent investor attention. In the current environment of competition for existing liquidity, technology stocks that combine sound fundamentals with relative strength are more likely to attract repeated capital flows.
The market’s defining characteristics remain weak indices and active structural rotation. Large-cap and broad-based indices have not yet confirmed a stable bottom, but selected technology and communications segments are showing considerable independence. From an operational perspective, investors should prioritize stocks with strong industry rankings, high O’Neil Scores, high RS Ratings, and clear signs of capital support. Particular attention should be paid to wireless communications, fabless semiconductors, semiconductor equipment, and related supply-chain segments. Caution remains appropriate toward rebound candidates that are below their moving-average systems and lack volume support.
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published on September 24, 2026