CSI 300 up 0.59%
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This week, the A-share market continued its attempt at a rebound, with most major indices recording gains. However, overall trading volume remained low, indicating that investor caution had not dissipated. The SSE Index(000001) rose by 1.19%, but it was still more than 10% away from its yearly high, and the daily trading volume was nearly 29% lower than the 50-day average, showing insufficient momentum for the rebound. TheCSI 300(000300) saw a modest increase of 0.59%, but technically it remains below multiple moving averages, indicating ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Growth sectors showed relative weakness, with the ChiNext(399006) and Shenzhen Index(399001) falling by 0.64% and 0.54% respectively, facing significant pressure overall.
Compared to the performance of the A-share market, the U.S. stock market faced clear pressures this week. The Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC)fell by 2.62% over the week, marking its largest weekly decline in four weeks and nearing a 20% correction from its one-year high, signaling technical adjustment pressures. The S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) also declined by 1.51%, losing several medium to long-term moving averages, with market risk appetite rapidly declining, possibly influenced by changes in inflation and interest rate expectations.
In terms of the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index(HSI) performed relatively strongly this week, rising by 2.3%, achieving three consecutive weeks of gains, mainly benefiting from improved expectations regarding real estate policies and boosted corporate earnings confidence. Despite the continued low trading volume this week, the index has already rebounded by 30.13% from its yearly low, potentially challenging previous resistance areas in the short term.
Economic data shows that U.S. retail sales unexpectedly grew by 1.4% month-over-month in March, reflecting sustained resilience in consumer spending. However, initial jobless claims were lower than expected at 215,000, indicating elasticity in the job market, which could reduce the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the short term. Additionally, unexpected rises in New York Fed consumer inflation expectations further increased uncertainty about the monetary policy outlook. Interest rates-wise, the European Central Bank’s deposit facility rate was cut to 2.25%, as expected, but had limited impact on the market. On the political front, Trump criticized Powell again and there were reports of plans to remove the Federal Reserve Chairman, raising concerns about potential damage to the independence of the Fed. Goldman Sachs predicted that if Trump reintroduced trade protectionist policies, the U.S. economy might face losses of $90 billion. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, also publicly criticized Trump’s tariff policies, suggesting they could have even deeper negative impacts than a recession. If geopolitical and policy uncertainties continue to escalate, global capital flows may undergo structural changes.
Domestic economic data indicates that China’s total social electricity consumption grew by 4.8% year-over-year in March, demonstrating certain resilience in the economic fundamentals despite being lower than the previous value. On the policy front, the State Council reiterated multiple times its commitment to accelerating the implementation of “early and swift” growth-stabilizing measures to further stabilize market expectations. In the real estate sector, several positive signals emerged, including Qingdao’s introduction of home-buying subsidies for families with two or three children, a narrowing decline in commodity housing sales indicators, and an increase in the number of cities experiencing monthly increases in house prices.
Sector-wise,Retail/Whlsle-Automobile(G5014IG.CN)led the market with a weekly gain of 7.42%. This sector benefited from policy catalysts and continuous improvement in terminal sales, coupled with positive mid-year report forecasts for some automobile dealers, attracting concentrated inflows of funds and leading to an independent rally. Beverages-Non-Alcoholic(G2086IG.CN) rose by 5.25% this week, standing out within the consumer sector. Hot weather drove up demand, combined with reduced cost pressures, accelerating profit expectation recovery and attracting attention from investors. Banks-Foreign(G1440IG.CN) recorded a weekly gain of 4.85%. With the strength of the US dollar and stability in offshore RMB exchange rates, mainland banks listed in Hong Kong attracted re-allocation from foreign capital due to their low valuation and high dividend attributes, becoming the preferred choice for defensive funds in this cycle.
The average gain among the top 33 sectors this week was 0.84%, with 17 stocks rising and 16 declining. Wuxi Chipown Micro-Electronics(688508)stood out with a 19.31% surge in share price, primarily benefitting from demand growth in the power management integrated circuit field. The company’s products have successfully replaced imports in home appliances, smart homes, and digital products, boasting a strong client roster including Midea, Gree, Huawei, and other industry-leading brands. With an O’Neil Score of 64 and RS Rating of 95, it demonstrated a strong performance among similar stocks.
Next week, 2865 companies will release earnings reports, potentially increasing volatility in the U.S. stock market, while the A-share market should also pay attention to disturbances from overseas liquidity. At the current stage, index movements remain largely driven by structural rebounds, without having exited the reversal confirmation zone. Short-term advice for investors includes focusing on fund flows, changes in sector strength rankings, and technical pattern evolution of leading stocks according to O’Neil ratings.
Overall, although indices generally did not reach new highs, core A-share indices have shown double-digit rebounds from their yearly lows. However, trading volumes constrain upward space. The U.S. stock market has entered a period of fluctuation and adjustment under the influence of geopolitical and policy uncertainties, with short-term sentiment being jointly influenced by actions of the Federal Reserve and performance during the earnings season. Whether the market can sustain its upward trend depends on the release of momentum, stabilization of macroeconomic data, and resolution of risk events.
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published on April 18, 2025