CSI 300 fell 1.31%
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A-shares remained relatively weak this week, and the system signals still pointed to a downtrend. From a trading perspective, position sizing and drawdown control should continue to be prioritized. Among the core broad benchmarks, the SSE Index(000001) rose 0.47% for the week, but it still remained 4.51% below its 200-day moving average and below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. CSI 300(000300) fell 1.31% for the week, stood 2.36% below its 200-day moving average, and was also below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating that the repair in large-cap weighted indexes remains unstable. Pressure was even more evident in growth-oriented assets: the Shenzhen Index(399001) fell 1.42% and ChiNext(399006) fell 3.93%. ChiNext was still 14.32% below its 50-day moving average, showing that high-beta assets have not yet broken out of their corrective structure. In terms of trading volume, most major A-share indices recorded negative changes in last-day volume versus the 50-day average volume. Only ChiNext saw a volume expansion of +7.79%, but this came with a price decline, reflecting a mix of divergence and defensive sentiment.
Overseas markets were relatively controlled this week, but the spillover support to A-shares was limited. The Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) rose 0.59% and the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) rose 0.35%, but both remained below their 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The Hang Seng Index(HSI) rose 3.69% and moved above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, indicating a staged recovery in risk appetite in Hong Kong equities.
Overseas, the U.S. policy environment remained dominated by a “high-rate wait-and-see” stance. The July Fed policy rate ceiling was kept at 3.75%, in line with expectations, suggesting that the Fed is unwilling to pivot to easing too early before inflation fully returns to target. June core PCE rose 3.3% year over year, down slightly from 3.4% previously, but still above target, meaning the anti-inflation task is not yet complete. That said, the U.S. economy has not shown any obvious loss of momentum. Initial jobless claims for the week of July 25 came in at 197,000, below the expected 200,000, indicating continued resilience in the labor market. Combined with the market view that “U.S. demand remains solid,” it is clear that the Fed’s current challenge is not “whether to rescue the economy,” but “how to prevent inflation from rebounding while growth remains stable.” This is also a major reason for its current inaction.
Energy remains an important source of policy disturbance in the U.S. For the week of July 24, EIA crude inventories fell sharply by 7.167 million barrels, far exceeding expectations, suggesting tight crude supply-demand conditions. Coupled with geopolitical risks such as tensions involving the U.S. and Iran and the Gaza issue, oil prices face renewed rebound pressure. If energy prices rise again, the pace of disinflation in the U.S. could once again be disrupted, and the Fed may remain cautious or even hawkish going forward.
On the domestic front, policy attention has become more clearly focused on “expanding domestic demand, stabilizing expectations, and promoting transformation.” The Politburo meeting laid out measures for the current economic situation, emphasizing both more effective macro policy implementation and the expansion of consumption, stabilization of real estate, and stronger resilience and confidence in capital markets. This reflects a second-half policy orientation that will place greater emphasis on combining aggregate support with structural optimization.
On monetary policy, the central bank has used large-scale reverse repos to “provide volume without changing price,” signaling ample but not excessive liquidity. The expanded pilot for the new loan pricing anchor suggests that interest-rate transmission is still being improved. Going forward, lower financing costs are more likely to come through reform-oriented and structural tools rather than simple rate cuts.
Industrial policy continues to concentrate on technological innovation. Nine departments are promoting the development and utilization of technology-finance data, and a special action plan for AI large models and IPv6 has been launched. This shows that policy is accelerating its focus on AI, computing power, data, and network infrastructure. Against the backdrop of increasing external restrictions on Chinese AI companies, domestic policy is placing greater emphasis on technological self-reliance and self-strengthening, using industrial-chain security and breakthroughs in key technologies to support long-term growth.
Fiscal and institutional policies are also being advanced in parallel. Adjustments to land tax policies in certain energy and resource industries should help reduce the burden on companies. The push to further unlock service consumption suggests that consumption policy is expanding from goods consumption into services. The renewed emphasis on comprehensive reforms in capital market financing and investment should help improve financing functions and market confidence.
From an industry performance perspective, fund flows have clearly rotated compared with the prior period. The leading sectors have shifted from defensive and cyclical names toward internet and software-related technology growth sectors, indicating that although the market is still in a consolidation phase, risk appetite has partially recovered in specific areas. This week’s top-performing industries were Internet-Content(G3334IG.CN), up 15.41%; Computer Sftwr-Enterprse(G3583IG.CN), up 15.10%; and Comp Sftwr-Spec Enterprs(G2761IG.CN), up 13.88%. The strength in internet-content names reflects renewed focus on content platforms, traffic monetization, and AI application deployment. The rise in enterprise software shows that the market remains optimistic about medium-term demand for enterprise digital transformation, cloud deployment, and AI-enabled management software. The activity in specialized custom software suggests renewed capital attention toward government and enterprise informatization, vertical solution scenarios, and industrial digitalization. Against the backdrop of continued policy support for technological innovation, the digital economy, and industrial upgrading, these subsectors are more likely to become high-beta rebound targets in capital positioning. This also indicates that the current market narrative is gradually tilting toward “tech repair.” However, before the broader market trend fully strengthens, sector-level differentiation may accelerate further, and funds are expected to concentrate more on leading names with stronger fundamentals and higher earnings realization capability.
At the stock level, the top 33 portfolio fell by an average of 8.36% this week, with 4 stocks up and 29 down. The internal profit-making effect was weak, and there was a pronounced split between the strongest names at the top and most holdings. The best performer was Hengyi Petrochemical ‘A'(000703), which rose 6.91% for the week. The stock has an O’Neil Score of 78, an RS Rating of 97, and an EPS Rating of 90, indicating strong earnings growth and price strength. Its industry also enjoys a certain relative advantage during phases of improving momentum in the resources and chemicals chain.
The key points to watch next week remain threefold: first, whether the SSE Index and CSI 300 can regain the 20-day moving average and narrow their gap versus the 50-day moving average; second, whether growth indices can show a “volume-backed stabilization + selective leadership” signal after their pullback; and third, whether the main themes in resources and semiconductors can move from thematic expansion toward earnings realization. At this stage, it is more appropriate to follow names with leading industry strength, relatively high RS Rating and EPS Rating, and stable capital support, while avoiding chasing pure sentiment-driven impulses in a weak trend environment.
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published on July 31, 2026